Feb 5, 2007

Russia's Caviar Economy

The numbers are in and the Russian economy is looking predictable. At first blush, it’s all gold-plated Hummers and rare French Champaign, but just below…

Oil: Down from $75 per barrel to $50-55 range, this is 25% lower that the level of oil prices used as the basis of the 2007 state budget.

Construction: Showed the greatest growth last year, but all the oil profits are really just looking for a place to park and should be considered with a heavy discount.

Investment: It bloomed to a record 13.5% last year, but falls far short of the 20% growth needed to sustain the “Russian Economic Miracle.”

Not that any of this really matters. The treasury is flush and Putin won’t be around to catch the flash-back of a long-term decline.

Besides, it’s time to order another round of beluga, for two please, and more champagne.

No comments: